Kalshi traders price Lula first-round favorite, Flávio Bolsonaro to win presidency

Kalshi traders give incumbent Lula a 74% chance of winning Sunday's first round of Brazil's presidential election, but price Flávio Bolsonaro as the 57% favorite to ultimately win the presidency. The split reflects expectations that the race will go to a second round, where the dynamics shift.

Shows how multi-round electoral systems create divergent probabilities across stages, a pricing pattern Kalshi and other platforms must model for any country with runoff rules.