Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are dominated by longshot bets that lose roughly 98% of the time, according to Bloomberg analysis of trading data. Despite platforms marketing themselves as information aggregators or truth machines, the actual trading behavior resembles casino-style wagering on low-probability outcomes rather than efficient price discovery.

Suggests retail trader behavior on major platforms may undermine the information-value case for prediction markets, with implications for how regulators and institutional participants view these venues.