The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled that Kalshi's sports-event contracts are not 'swaps' under federal law, deepening a circuit split on how to classify prediction-market products. Kalshi operates a designated contract market registered with the CFTC and offers event contracts on sporting-event outcomes. The ruling contrasts with other circuits that have taken different approaches to similar products, creating uncertainty for platforms seeking national regulatory clarity.

The circuit split makes it harder for CFTC-regulated platforms to predict how courts nationwide will treat their contracts, raising compliance costs and litigation risk for Kalshi and competitors seeking uniform product structures.