Sports
Kalshi home run odds: Stokastic sims show wide market gaps
Aug 12, 2026 22:15:43
Kalshi listed 66 hitter home-run markets for Wednesday's 14 MLB games, but only 35 carried live two-sided quotes when Stokastic pulled prices around 12:10 PM ET. The Stokastic article compares its own simulation-driven odds against Kalshi's market prices, highlighting liquidity gaps where roughly half the listed contracts lacked active quoting.
Highlights structural liquidity challenges in granular sports event contracts. Thin quoting on nearly half of listed home-run markets suggests Kalshi's baseball micro-markets are still building two-sided depth, which matters for traders sizing positions and for the platform's ability to compete with traditional sportsbooks on in-game prop liquidity.
Source: PREDICTION_NEWS