Polymarket traders have repriced the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike to over 80%, up sharply from 22%, as Japan's yen intervention loses effectiveness in controlling the currency. The move reflects fading confidence that official intervention alone can stabilize the yen without accompanying monetary policy tightening.

Shows Polymarket functioning as a real-time gauge of institutional sentiment on central bank policy, competing with traditional FX forwards and swaps for macro trade expression.