Polymarket traders price Ariel Pakes as Nobel economics favorite at 18.5%

Polymarket data as of October 8 shows Ariel Pakes leading at 18.5% probability to win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics, with Michael Woodford second at 12.0%. The market references Clarivate's 2026 Citation Laureates list.

Shows Polymarket being used as a real-time consensus tracker for non-financial events like academic prizes, expanding the platform's use case beyond politics and markets.