Polymarket says traders on its platform had been placing bets that the AI trade would run into trouble similar to what tanked Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund at Situational Awareness. The claim dates to August 12, 2026. The bets suggest prediction-market participants were pricing in risks to the AI investment thesis ahead of the fund's collapse. Polymarket framed the positioning as early crowd intelligence spotting trouble before mainstream markets.

Kalshi has listed active prediction markets on AI company IPOs, Mars missions, NATO leadership, and Ukraine election timing, with $1.4 million in combined volume. Additional markets cover SpaceX versus Blue Origin moon landings and Elon Musk's Mars ambitions. The contracts expand Kalshi's catalog beyond political and macroeconomic offerings into technology, space, and geopolitical themes. The platform also carries climate-related forecasts.

Polymarket traders expect the S&P 500 to extend gains and open higher on Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026, after President Trump paused planned strikes on Iran and amid a tech rally. The article also references Amazon AI earnings as a market factor.

Polymarket is targeting a $20 billion valuation as it scales against regulated rivals in the prediction market sector. The crypto-native platform saw strong 24-hour trading volume recently, with AI, esports, and geopolitical events driving activity alongside its dominant political markets. The valuation goal reflects intensifying competition for market share among platforms offering politically and economically focused trading products.

Polymarket has opened a prediction market on the timing of Anthropic's Claude usage limits reset. The market combines prediction market mechanics with crypto integration, according to the platform.